Börsennotizbuch

Ãœbersicht der 2008-Prognosen von Byron Wien von Pequot Capital Management bei MarketBeat (WSJ):

1. The U.S. economy suffers its first recession since 2001.
2. S&P earnings decline year-over-year, and the index falls 10%.
3. The dollar strengthens in the first half to $1.35 against the euro, but weakens in the second half.
4. Inflation rises above 5% on the CPI and 10-year yields hit 5%. Stagflation becomes a prominent topic on the campaign stump and in op-ed pieces.
5. The price of oil goes down early in the year (to $80 a barrel) and up again later, rising to $115 a barrel in the second half of 2008.
6. Agricultural commodities remain strong. Corn rises to $6.00 a bushel and cotton to 85 cents a pound, while gold reaches $1000.
7. The Chinese stock market gets hit sharply as the Chinese economy slows. China revalues the remnimbi by another 10%. (As an aside he expects several long-distance runners to beg off from the Beijing Olympics due to air quality issues.)
8. Russia’s new president, Dmitry Medvedev, becomes more assertive in world affairs, and Russia and Brazil lead the BRIC stock markets, while the Gulf Cooperation Council markets begin to attract interest among emerging market investors.
9. Infrastructure improvement will be an important election theme, bolstering construction and engineering stocks. Water supply becomes a criticial problem world-wide.
10. Barack Obama is elected president in a landslide over Mitt Romney, and the Democrats end up with 60 Senate seats and a clear majority in the House of Representatives.