Börsennotizbuch

Essentially, this crisis is occurring due to a substantial increase in the supply of houses through subprime foreclosures, and a decrease in demand to buy houses through harder to get mortgages. As more homes enter the market and less people are able to acquire mortgages to by them the price drops. Hence, the first major step in a recovery for the sector will be a slow-down in the number of foreclosures, which likely will not occur into the early parts of the second half of this year.

How Will the Housing Crisis End?

Tom Malthus überlegt, wie und wann sich der US-Immobilienmarkt stabilisiert und erholen wird. Er schildert 7 Schritte und präsentiert diese mit den entsprechenden Datenreihen (Charts), die auch (mehr oder weniger in der präsentierten Reihenfolge) drehen sollen, bevor wir von einem Boden und von einer überwundenen Immobilien-”Misere” sprechen können.

1. The number of defaults from subprime borrowers needs to drop substantially.
2. Banks need to lower lending standards for home mortgages.
3. Once people are again able to buy homes we will see a reduction in inventory levels.
4. Interessant anzuschauen und zu lesen.
5. The rise in demand for new construction will first show up in building permits.
6. Very soon after the rise in building permits we will see an increase in housing starts.
7. The increase in starts will lead to an increase in construction spending.
8. Finally, residential investment begins to rise and the housing crisis is over.