Börsennotizbuch

Ein interessantes Interview mit Bob Greer von PIMCO, offensichtlich einer der einflußreichten Commodities Portfolio Manager in der Welt, Executive Vice President von PIMCO und Manager der RealReturn Products (inkl. PIMCO Commodity RealReturn Strategy Fund) mit ca. $16 Mrd. unter Verwaltung.

Aus dem Interview möchte ich diese Passage wiedergeben, in der Bob Greer über die Entstehung der Nachfrage an den Warenterminbörsen bzw. über den “intrinsischen Wert” der Kontrakte spricht (das Interview führte HardAssetsInvestor.com):

HAI: But that $16 billion is definitely a source of demand for futures contracts. If the demand for the contracts dried up wouldn’t it have an impact?

Greer: It can in the short term. Most people talk about this in the sense of driving up the price of a commodity. It’s hard to drive up the price of something that’s in unlimited supply, or that has an outside of measure of its intrinsic value. Commodities futures are like that. What the index investor is buying is the futures contract, and there is no limitation on the number of contracts that can exist. If you want 300 crude oil contracts, if you pay the price, the floor of the NYMEX will create 300 more crude oil contracts. The price of that contract will eventually converge to whatever the refineries are willing to pay for crude oil, which is based on what you and I are willing to pay for gasoline. So you have the outside measure of the intrinsic value, which is different than say real estate, with constrained supply, or Dotcoms, which lost any measure of intrinsic value.

The movement in the futures markets does have information value that people in the cash markets use. I think that over the short term–we’ve seen this in the last week or two–financial flows can affect futures prices. But you do have the two governing mechanisms that inhibit the potential for a speculative bubble: you can have as many contracts as the market wants, and you have supply and demand in the real life markets like the gas pump and the grocery store that dampens any irrational exuberance.

seekingalpha.com, An Interview with Bob Greer