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Globalisierung, Inflation und der Euro

9. März, 2008 ·

Ich möchte auf die Rede von Axel Weber, Präsidnt der Deutschen Bundesbank, auf der Konferenz über Geldpolitik der Norges Bank hinweisen. Es werden die Themen und Zusammenhänge von Globalisierung und Inflation behandelt, natürlich unter der besonderen Beachtung der Auswirkungen auf die Euro-Geldpolitik, die Gemeinschaftswährung und die Implikationenen für die EZB.

Zum besseren Eindruck, ein Zitat aus den einleitenden Worten:

It was only some months ago when a lot of “writers and critics have prophesized” that in an era of globalisation inflation is and should be no reason for concern for monetary policy makers. With the benefit of hindsight they should have followed Bob Dylan’s advice: “But don’t speak too soon, for the wheel is still in spin”.

Today inflation has reappeared on a global scale and – in the face of the global financial turbulences of the past months – the debate in the media has switched from being in a “goldilocks environment” to the inherent risks of entering a period of stagflation.

Considering that, as Bob Dylan put it, “the times they are a-changin” a medium- to longer-term perspective is of the essence. Taking such a medium-term view, I have always belonged to the sceptics with regard to the “globalisation = low inflation”-paradigm.

In my following remarks I want to concentrate on some of the implications globalisation has for monetary policy. There are at least two issues at play here: The influence of global factors on domestic price developments as well as the implications of globalisation for the transmission of monetary policy. Moreover, I want to briefly discuss the current stance of monetary policy in the euro area in the face of global inflationary pressures and global financial tensions.

I will argue that with regard to the first two more general aspects the globalisation process does not fundamentally call into question the ability of an independent central bank to guarantee price stability over the medium-term. Thus, globalisation by no means reduces the need for a stability-oriented domestic monetary policy. This principle applies all the more to the current environment of elevated inflationary pressures and heightened financial market tensions. Of course, I do not intend to invoke the impression that the globalisation of goods and financial markets has not altered price dynamics and transmission forces. To the contrary!

But the bottom line of my arguments is, that globalisation ultimately raises the degree of uncertainty with which monetary policy decisions are taken.

Uncertainty, however, is something we are confronted with as policy makers on a almost daily basis. It asks for a robust monetary policy strategy. Robustness in that context implies a broad analysis of monetary and economic indicators. But it also means a clear and well-known strategic framework that puts price stability to the forefront.

Das Dokument: Globalisation, Monetary Policy and the Euro (PDF)

Kategorien: Finanznews · Research

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