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New Home Sales, September 2008: (Fast) Negativrekorde

28. Oktober, 2008 ·

New Home Sales, September 2008Die (Verkäufe von Neubauten) — die New Home Sales — melden weiterhin eine äußerst schwache Verfassung des US-Immobilienmarktes. Die wichtigsten Eckdaten aus dem Bericht des US Census Bureau:

Sales of new one-family houses in September 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 2.7 percent (±12.1%)* above the revised August rate of 452,000, but is 33.1 percent (±8.9%) below the September 2007 estimate of 694,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2008 was $218,400; the average sales price was $275,500. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 394,000. This represents a supply of 10.4 months at the current sales rate.

Calculated Risk vergleicht die Zahlen mit 1991, dem schlimmsten Jahr am US-Immobilienmarkt der neueren Zeit. Bis September verläuft das Jahr 2008 immer noch ein bisschen “besser” als 1991:

In 2008, sales through September (before revisions) have totaled 402 thousand. This is slightly ahead of the pace in 1991 (391 thousand sales through September).

Aber die Verkäufe sind in der zweiten Jahreshälfte stark gesunken, so dass 2008 den Negativrekord aus den frühen 90er sogar unterbieten könnte:

However sales have slowed in the 2nd half of 2008, and it appears that annual sales might be below the 509 thousand in 1991. It will probably be close, but if sales are below the 1991 level, this would mean sales would be the lowest since 1982 (412 thousand).

Umgerechnet auf die Bevölkerungszahl ist es bereits soweit:

Of course the U.S. population and the number of households were much lower in 1982. In 1982 there were 54.2 million owner occupied units in the U.S., in 1991 there were 61.0 million, and there are approximately 76 million today.

If we use a ratio of owner occupied units to compare periods, the low in 1982 was 412 thousand X (76/54.2) = 578 thousand units (based on the number of owner occupied units today).

The calculation for 1991 gives 634 thousand units (to compare to today).

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