Börsennotizbuch

Vom Blog Real Time Economics (des Wall Street Journals) zum Thema “Kann die Wirtschaft einen Öl-Preis von über 100 Dollar verkraften?”:

Countering the conventional wisdom, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are skeptical oil prices can remain at their current heights over the long run.

“Absent supply disruptions, it will be difficult to sustain oil prices above $100 (a barrel, in 2008 dollars) over the next 10 years,” Dallas Fed researchers Stephen Brown, Raghav Virmani and Richard Alm write in the bank’s monthly Economic Letter.

The future of oil prices “will be determined by the same four factors that have shaped the market in recent years — global demand, expectations about future market tightness, the value of the dollar and fear of supply interruptions.” The paper argues “if these factors stay on their present course, prices are likely to be pushed higher.” But, “if one or more factors change, markets could see some easing of price pressures.”

For the researchers, the key factor appears to be the development of new supply, coupled with a recovery in the dollar as the broader economy begins to improve. They point to reports of a rush to develop nontraditional sources of oil as a signal market forces themselves will work to counteract some of the recent surge.

Also vier Faktoren, die den Öl-Preis am stärksten antreiben: globale (reale) Nachfrage nach dem Rohstoff, Erwartungen eines (im Verhältnis) knappen Angebots, die Abwertung des Dollars und die Angst vor Lieferausfällen.

Von diesen vier, sieht die Dallas Fed vor allem zwei, die möglicherweise für Entspannung sorgen könnten: Eine Wende beim Dollarkurs und/oder eine Zunahme des Angebots insbesondere aus sog. “nonconventional oil resources”. Wenn man die bestehende Kostenstruktur der “nonconventional oil resources” berücksichtigt, dürften Preise von über 70 Dollar pro Barrel kaum dauerhaft bestehen können.

Somit ist die Dallas Fed eindeutig abseits des momentanen Marktkonsens.

Vor diesem Hintergrund will ich auch auf die Meldung von Bloomberg verweisen, dass die Hedge Fonds massiv die Long-Positionen auf Öl reduziert haben: Der Rückgang bei den Futures soll ganze 80% betragen:

Hedge-fund managers and speculators reduced bets on higher oil prices by 80 percent since July as crude futures rose to records and U.S. regulators started investigating trading, government data show.

So-called speculative net long positions fell to 25,867 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week ended May 27 from a record 127,491 on July 31, according to a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on May 30.

The decline may complicate the CFTC’s probe as regulators try to determine how much of the rise in oil to more than $135 a barrel last month was caused by speculators who may have manipulated the market instead of consumer demand. The CFTC, under pressure from Congress, said May 29 it was investigating the doubling of oil prices the past year and said it will consider giving more detail on the types of oil investors and their holdings.