Börsennotizbuch

Eric Roseman’s Eruptions: “Rechnet nicht damit, dass die Fed die Aktien retten wird” (“Don’t Count on the Fed to Save Stocks in 2008“):

What’s amazing about the last bear market is that stocks continued to plunge even as the Federal Reserve aggressively cut lending rates. Turn the calendar ahead six years and we’re pretty much in the same pickle.

The bulls point to the Fed as our stock-market savior. I’m not so sure. Yes, it’s hard or even futile to “Fight the Fed” when the central bank is printing like mad and desperately trying to reflate the money-supply; but investors forget that despite its best efforts starting in January 2001, the Greenspan Fed unsuccessfully halted a massive slide in stock values. From January 2001 until December 2002, the Fed cut rates from 5.50% to 1.25%, yet the S&P 500 Index still plunged a cumulative 36%.

Since the Bernanke Fed began cutting rates last September, the S&P 500 Index has declined a cumulative 10% — not exactly a successful rescue.

I still think this market will form a bottom sometime in the fourth quarter – not before. But even then, I don’t expect a bull market to return because the contraction of credit has fractured the economy, corporate earnings and the consumer. It’s hard to be bullish on the market for an extended period amid these conditions and especially when oil is trading north of $100 per barrel.

Schon möglich… Ein Rückgang des S&P 500 von 10% ist aber jetzt nicht gerade die Horrormeldung, oder? Nichtsdestotrotz – stimmt – die harten Prüfungen aus der realen Wirtschaft stehen noch bevor. Und der Ölpreis so hoch ist natürlich keine Entlastung — weder für die Börse, noch für die Verbraucher. Die Frage ist, wie schnell man sein muss, wenn das Öl deutlich korrigieren soll?