Die Inflationserwartungen gemessen an den TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities bzw. inflationsindexierte Anleihen) sind am Steigen. Somit tippt der Kapitalmarkt auffällig immer mehr in Richtung Inflation (wenn wir unsere “Inflation oder Deflation”-Diskussion in Erinnerung rufen):
The genie already has his nose out. One example comes by way of the outlook for inflation based on the yield spread between the nominal and inflation-indexed varieties of the 10-year Treasury Notes. As our chart below shows, the market’s 10-year inflation forecast is creeping up, again. Yes, it’s still quite low—under 2.0%. But it’s the directional momentum that’s the issue. Having elevated the market’s inflation expectations from zero to roughly 2% in the last six months, the Fed must soon begin to pull back on the liquidity injections, if only just slightly. Raising Fed funds to 0.5% would be reasonable at some point in the near future, up from the 0-0.25% range that currently prevails, if only to send a signal to the markets about intent.
The Capital Spectator, GONE (FOR THE MOMENT) BUT NOT FORGOTTEN
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