Börsennotizbuch

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• Saviano // 12. Feb, 2008

  So nach dem Motto “Nicht ohne meine Statistik”…

  Bringt es denn etwas, die Titelseiten (Coverstories) zu beobachten und als (Kontra-)Indikator zu benutzen? Das wurde natürlich “researched”: Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators? (PDF)

  Conclusion:

  As one might expect, positive feature stories headlined on business magazine covers follow extremely positive company performance and negative headlines follow extremely negative performance. In both cases, however, the appearance on a cover of Business Week, Fortune, or Forbes tends to signal the end of the extreme performance.

  Going forward from publication dates, we found only weak evidence that optimistic cover stories (Category 2) are an indicator for momentum for a six-month horizon after publication. Negative cover headlines apparently do not provide a good signal for momentum or contrarian strategies when performance is measured against an index or measured on a size/industry-adjusted basis—despite a popular belief that such stories are a contrarian signal.

  Indeed, companies in the study that were the subjects of negative feature stories tended to have positive holding-period returns after publication of the magazine, but the positive return was not abnormally positive when adjusted for an index or for size and industry.

  Consequently, we conclude that if an investor is short the stock of a company that is the subject of a negative cover story, the publication of the story indicates it is time to cover the short position because the stock has hit bottom.

  Sie beschäftigen sich hier vor allem mit Einzelwerten. Globale Themen und Trends (z.B. Zins-Trends, Immobilien, Rohstoffe, Emerging Markets, Hausse und Baisse) werden von dieser Studie nicht so gut erfasst.

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