Börsennotizbuch

Der Einkaufsmanagerindex sank gegenüber dem Vormonat von 50,9 auf 50,8. Das er zurückging, wird völlig korrekt als negativ für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung interpretiert. Das ist schließlich der Sinn und Zweck eines solchen Index (über seine letztendliche Zweckmäßigkeit zu streiten, ist jetzt nicht mein Anliegen). Ich möchte nur hineisen, dass sich der Index (wohl gemerkt: noch) über die 50 hält, signalisiert also kein Schrumpfen der Wirtschaftstätigkeit. In diesem Zusammenhang möchte ich das Zitat aus Capital Commerce (Blog der US News) anbringen (aus dem Artikel Economy Continues to Buck the Pessimists, zitiert werden Brian Wesbury und Bob Stein von First Trust Advisors):

The consensus among economists, including at the Federal Reserve, is that fourth quarter growth will be just 0.5%. Some are even arguing that the economy will contract, the first negative quarter since 2001. Nonetheless, we still believe the economy is in good shape and expect real GDP to grow between 1.5% and 2.0% at an annual rate in Q4. Yes, this is below trend, but it is partially a payback for above-trend growth in Q2 and Q3. The three quarter average will still be near 3.5%. More importantly, key monthly data releases are nowhere near recession levels. The ISM Manufacturing Index was at 50.8 in November. At the start of the last recession (March 2001) the index was 42.6. The service sector is also still robust, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 55.8 in October versus 50.0 in March 2001. Other key surveys for November say the same thing. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of midwest manufacturing activity, was 52.9 in November versus 37.2 in March 2001. The Philly Fed Index, a measure of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region, was at +8.2 in November versus -20.2 in March 2001.