Diesmal nicht von mir, sondern von Peter Richardson, Autor des Blogs Capmarketline (Capital Markets & Economic Analysis):
To me, the dollar retains value if a dollar saved earns a decent premium over the rate of inflation here and if the Fed is not printing too much currency. Regarding the latter, I watch FOMC activity and the monetary base. The FOMC has been stingy for months now, and with a 91 day T-Bill yield of 5.1% against an inflation rate now around 3%, the dollar seems ok to me. I think the record will show the dollar tends to hold its value when there is a decent real risk free rate available. The dollar tends to fall when the Fed accelerates the growth of the basic money supply and when the T bill % falls relative to, or worse, down through the inflation rate.
Vielleicht kann es einfach so einfach sein…
1 Kommentar bis jetzt ↓
Olaf // 8. Nov, 2006
Das schreit nach einem Verweis auf die Geldmenge M3, die die Fed
aufgrund “der hohen Kosten und des geringen Nutzens” nicht mehr
veröffentlicht (wer’s glaubt…):
M3 is back
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